The US and Iran struck a peace deal — and gas prices may finally come down.

After months of conflict that kept energy markets on edge, the United States and Iran signed a framework agreement to end the war and reopen a critical waterway that carries a large portion of the world’s oil supply. Oil prices dropped sharply on the news. It will take time to feel at the pump, but this is the first real signal that the energy pressure driving up everyday costs could begin to ease. For most Americans, this is the most directly impactful news of the week¹.

The Fed signaled rates aren’t coming down — and may go up.

In his first press conference as Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh held interest rates steady but sent a clear message: the era of rate cuts is over, and a rate hike is now on the table. With inflation running hotter than expected, the Fed is shifting from “wait and see” to “we may need to act.” For anyone with a mortgage, car loan, or credit card balance, this means high borrowing costs are likely here longer than most people hoped.\².

SpaceX’s post-IPO honeymoon ended fast.

Just days after its historic stock market debut, SpaceX shares fell back below their opening price — a reminder that even the most anticipated IPOs come with volatility. Tech stocks broadly sold off this week, pulling major indexes lower. Markets are recalibrating what these companies are actually worth in a world where rates may be rising³.

The Iran deal is the one to watch going forward.

If the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully and oil flows normalize, it could do more to bring down inflation than anything the Fed has done all year.   Markets are already putting the Iran war in the rear view.

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Sources

¹ Al Jazeera, Oil prices fall, stocks rally as US, Iran sign framework to end war – June 18, 2026.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/18/oil-prices-fall-stocks-rally-as-us-iran-sign-framework-to-end-war

² CNN Business, Fed leaves interest rates unchanged but signals higher rates are ahead – June 17, 2026.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-kevin-warsh

³ TheStreet, Stock Market Today – June 17, 2026. https://www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-

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This newsletter is compiled with the assistance of Claude Sonnet.

This newsletter represents our opined general assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future performance or results. The opinions and statements expressed are intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or investment strategies to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. The opinions expressed are as of June 24, 2026, and are subject to change without notice. Investing involves risks. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results, and index returns do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

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