Markets continue to show resilience as we navigate a blend of steady but mixed U.S. economic data, persistent, energy driven inflation pressures, and evolving geopolitical dynamics surrounding the Iran conflict. This week’s Macro Monitor focuses on the latest inflation readings, housing and manufacturing signals, and the equity rally sparked by conflicting peace talk developments.

Equity markets posted solid weekly gains, recovering prior losses tied to the conflict, while bond yields held relatively steady and oil prices remained elevated but volatile on supply risk headlines.

Market Overview

U.S. equities exhibited strong performance amid improving sentiment on potential Iran de escalation, with major indexes posting notable advances that erased earlier war related declines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose on Monday,  capping their best week since November and bringing the S&P back to pre conflict levels. Fixed income markets saw Treasury yields hold relatively steady amid mixed inflation data, while commodities—particularly oil—stayed higher on ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions despite intermittent hopes for a resolution.

Key Economic Releases

This week’s reports painted a picture of a services led economy that remains in expansion, offset by softer housing and manufacturing trends, with inflation showing signs of reacceleration in headline measures due to energy costs linked to the Iran conflict.

• March 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI): The PPI for final demand rose 0.5% month over month, following gains of 0.5% in February and 0.6% in January. On a year over year basis, the index advanced 4.0%—the largest 12 month increase in some time—with final demand goods up 1.6% and services unchanged.¹
• March 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI): Headline CPI jumped 0.9% month over month and 3.3% year over year (up sharply from 2.4% the prior month), driven by a 10.9% surge in energy prices (gasoline alone +21.2%). Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose a more modest 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually.²
• February 2026 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge increased 0.4% month over month, with the year over year rate at 2.8% (unchanged from January). Core PCE (excluding food and energy) also rose 0.4% monthly and 3.0% annually (down slightly from 3.1%).³

Taken together, the inflation picture remains mixed but tilted toward caution. Headline measures are reaccelerating due to energy volatility tied to the Iran conflict, while core readings and PCE data show elevated but contained underlying pressures. This data dependent environment continues to support a patient stance from policymakers.

• March 2026 Existing Home Sales: Sales fell 3.6% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million—the slowest March pace since 2009. Inventory rose 3.0% to 1.36 million units, and the median sales price was $408,800.⁴
• February 2026 Durable Goods Orders: New orders declined 1.4% month over month, marking a third consecutive drop and underscoring softness in the goods producing sector amid higher interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty.⁵
• March 2026 ISM Services PMI: The index registered 54.0, down from February but still signaling expansion for the 21st consecutive month. New orders strengthened to 60.6, while the employment index contracted to 45.2.⁶

Geopolitical Tensions and the Equity Rally

Developments around the Iran conflict dominated headlines and market sentiment. A two week ceasefire took effect April 8, but peace talks in Islamabad collapsed, prompting the U.S. to impose a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite setbacks, continued diplomatic signals fueled a sharp equity rally. Major indexes recovered losses incurred since late February, with oil prices remaining elevated but retreating from peaks above $100 per barrel. These dynamics highlight market sensitivity to geopolitical headlines and continued resilience in risk assets.⁷

Outlook

With services activity holding firm, productivity supportive, and headline inflation pressures largely tied to energy volatility, the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience. However, softer housing and durable goods data and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty warrant vigilance. Our team remains focused on high quality, diversified positioning to navigate near term volatility and longer term opportunities.

Best regards,

Richard Barnett

Chief Investment Officer

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Footnotes:

¹ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Indexes – March 2026, https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

² U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index – March 2026, https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

³ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays – February 2026, https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2026

⁴ National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales Report – March 2026, https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

⁵ U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Report on Durable Goods – February 2026, https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html

⁶ Institute for Supply Management, Services PMI – March 2026, https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/news-publications/inside-supply-management-magazine/blog/2026/2026-04/ism-pmi-reports-roundup-march-2026-manufacturing/

⁷ Reuters, Equities turn around on renewed Middle East hopes, oil pares gains, April 8, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-04-09/; US, Iran may resume talks this week despite port blockade, April 13, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-begins-iran-port-blockade-oil-prices-ease-hopes-dialogue-2026-04-14/

Researched and compiled with the assistance of Grok. This newsletter represents our opined general assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future performance or results. The opinions and statements expressed are intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or investment strategies to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. The opinions expressed are as of April 14, 2026, and are subject to change without notice. Investing involves risks. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results, and index returns do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.  

Investment advisory and wealth management services are offered through Highline Wealth Partners, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training and does not guarantee investment performance.

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